The CBA Analyst Guide To The Brownlow 2012

Has Ablett done enough to win a second Brownlow Medal?

􀂄 We have modelled the 2012 AFL season using a number of match-day statistics and modelled the Brownlow voting.

􀂄 Gary Ablett is clearly the most likely winner in our model. Swan, Thompson and Watson are next, in that order.

􀂄 We know it’s unusual for a team that finished second last to provide the Brownlow Medallist. But Ablett’s 2012 season is clearly superior (statistically) to his 2009 Brownlow medal winning year.

􀂄 Dane Swan seems likely to outperform expectations. Our model puts him second, behind Ablett.

􀂄 Richmond’s Trent Cotchin seems unlikely to perform as well as the media expects, while Thompson and Dangerfield are likely to ‘steal’ votes from one another at Adelaide.

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