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EU Finance ministers have just signed off on the bail out package for Greece. The "voluntary" losses taken by the private bond holders will now be larger than what was agreed to the previous month. The haircut that was "agreed" to will now be 53.5%. The IMF believes that this will be sufficient to reduce Greece's debt to GDP ratio, currently sitting at 180%, to 120.5% by 2020. This is despite modelling that was delivered in a confidential paper earlier this week whereby it was stated that by 2020 their debt to GDP ratio would only fall to 160%. Alongside this, the paper's downside scenario entailed that Greece will in fact require EUR245 billion of bailout money, rather than the EUR 130 billion that has just been agreed to. The issue here remains that the austerity package will hinder growth in Greece's nascent (if ever) recovery, with the outcome of therefore perpetually causing international investors to shun the Greek bond market permanently. Baseline scenarios that the IMF has used as the basis to sign off on this current bailout package delivered this afternoon is predicated on the fact that Greece's economy experiences positive GDP growth in 2013 and achieves a minimum of 2.3% GDP growth in 2014. We continue to monitor Portuguese bonds, the 10 years currently sitting at 12.5%.
Logic argues against a Eurozone break-up given the costs to countries that exit. Nevertheless, a disorderly Greek default is a high risk, but at least Europe is becoming better at being able to deal with it, particularly if it occurs after new bailout funds are in place from mid-year. • So while Greek issues are unlikely to go away any time soon and remain a source of volatility, they are unlikely to pose as big a threat to the global economy and investment markets as was feared last year.
US stocks closed sharply higher in reaction to a deal amongst European leaders to bolster the region's bailout fund, and also a deal with banks and insurers to accept 50 per cent losses on Greek bonds.
From the research I have done this week it appears the Europeans are getting their act together. This is a primary reason why our market has rallied over the past 24 hours. From what we can see the Europeans are starting to work co operatively to solve the immediate Greek problem and the political interference is reducing and they are not getting as involved in the process.